Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


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CortoMaltese

Hello Dear All at CTF,

As a european roaster, i am surprised by this market after 5 weeks of rise in NY and a still very firm London. When NY have had a negative trade, last week, i thought we would go back to 125cts NYDec17 but in fact the market bouced back @132.85cts. So what?

Earlier, i thought the range was 125/135tcs on 2nd position, currently NY Dec17 but i feel i was wrong and the range would be rather 135/145cts. The good € help us here to get good final prices.
In my opinion, the market have exagerated the fundamentals: in Novembre 2016 they were historically long. Then Pdt Trump was elected: Coffee was bought, so was the new Pdt Trump.

3 weeks ago, the funds were historically short and, the commercials were net long, a very rare situation. The explanations are rather on the Macro side rather on new fresh bearish fondamental news. This net short position taken by the funds has become a bullish card.

Pdt Trump does not suceed in implementing his policies. Now, he is sold by the market, and the $ reverses against the €, at1.175$ =1€.

Where do we go from here. I really don't know, i am a bit lost!

London should decrease from 2105$ to 1900$ with the very good crop coming from Vietnam, to be harvested Oct/Nov 2017. Could London put pressure on NY?

Have good trades and nice holidays!

CortoMaltese

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CortoMaltese
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