Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Hello Dear All at CTF,
As a european roaster, i am surprised by this market after 5 weeks of rise in NY and a still very firm London. When NY have had a negative trade, last week, i thought we would go back to 125cts NYDec17 but in fact the market bouced back @132.85cts. So what?
Earlier, i thought the range was 125/135tcs on 2nd position, currently NY Dec17 but i feel i was wrong and the range would be rather 135/145cts. The good € help us here to get good final prices.
In my opinion, the market have exagerated the fundamentals: in Novembre 2016 they were historically long. Then Pdt Trump was elected: Coffee was bought, so was the new Pdt Trump.
3 weeks ago, the funds were historically short and, the commercials were net long, a very rare situation. The explanations are rather on the Macro side rather on new fresh bearish fondamental news. This net short position taken by the funds has become a bullish card.
Pdt Trump does not suceed in implementing his policies. Now, he is sold by the market, and the $ reverses against the €, at1.175$ =1€.
Where do we go from here. I really don't know, i am a bit lost!
London should decrease from 2105$ to 1900$ with the very good crop coming from Vietnam, to be harvested Oct/Nov 2017. Could London put pressure on NY?
Have good trades and nice holidays!