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ECOM Production Estimate Revision

ECOM Revises 2017-2018 Brazil Crop Estimate Down 1 Million Bags

CoffeeeNetwork (New York) – ECOM has revised their estimate for Brazil’s 2017-2018 coffee crop to 55 million 60-kg bags, down from the previous estimate of 56 million bags, Gustavo Moretti, trader at ECOM tells CoffeeNetwork in an interview today.

Of that, he says he expects 43 million bags of Arabica and 12 million bags of Robusta. They have maintained their Arabica estimate, while Robusta was revised down 1 million bags from their previous forecast of 13 million bags.

Moretti expresses that he does not think the recent outbreak of broca (coffee borer beetle) will reduce production levels even further. “We do recognize the instance of the beetle is a little over average but it is not going to have a significant impact,” he says.

Looking ahead to the 2018-2019 crop, Moretti says that there is indeed potential for a big crop, with winter frost concerns seemingly over. “Now we need to watch for spring rains,” he says. An estimate will be given after the first flowering of the crop.

Overall, he notes that he expects private stocks to be well above what CONAB had recently reported at 9.86 million 60-kg bags. “There is a quite comfortable stock situation,” he says.

Alexis Rubinstein

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