Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
I won't comment on the absolute value of their estimate. But the harvest is coming lower than expected, not only lower than last year (I would say the cold last year is one of the reasons). Broca is a big problem this year, and will be bigger next year. We have a combination of low yields and low prices affecting farmer's ability to proper care for the crops. All this and more affects Arabica. So, it's possible that ECOM had all that figured out before everyone else. But a simpler explanation is that they are not really worried about the accuracy of their estimates.