Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
I agree with you .
A more Cartesian thought would be the current crop of coffee + coffee stocks - domestic consumption = export availability.
Therefore, my numbers = 43 MM + 4 MM - 21 MM = 26 MM of exports in the period from July 2017 to June 2018.
Adding the exports of the previous year (16/17) were 32.90, then Juy 2016 until June 2018, Brazil should export 59 MM, when it exported between July 2014 until June 2016 close to 72 MM.
Then we will have a supply difference of 13 MM of bags.
That is why the world needs that Brazil does very well in 2018/19.