Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


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Re: Eon 101/Baloney/Coffee Wake Up Call

That is Not True.

The 2010/2011 bull move in coffee was a supply demand mismatch as there were weather issues at all when the market ran up to over $3/pound.

Brazilian and central america cash differentials had been soaring many months prior to the bull market starting in June of 2010 right into the teeth of harvest.

The rising cash differentials was a supply demand mismatch.

The same supply/demand mismatch occurred in 1997 when also cash differentials in Brazil and central america took off in advance of the big bull move due to a supply demand mismatch. Also that year green coffee stocks and NY warehouse certified stocks reached record lows. A clear supply demand mismatch.

So there have been two clear instances of a non weather related bull move in coffee.

All others have been weather related.

Whether we get either one these this time around only time will tell.

I hope this helps.

May god be with you.

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