Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Good morning Tango,
thank you for your valuable insight.
It is great to have someone who can speak vast experiences.
I am recently thinking whether the market has reversed enough already... actually if they are covering short positions isn't it a kind of long bias..?
It might be the case that they cautiously reversed, but not too aggressively, because they are still net short and do not want to start panic rally.
And also I do not see any hard shorting from anyone.. or am I mistaken? Looks like a test and fail shallow shorting attempts.
And what if longs stop selling.. that would be something, IMO.
I know when I am long I always sell to soon.. so maybe longs sell on profit take now, which might be a little bit too early, in a hope for return after correction.
But if there is no correction and commercials reverse to long, longs will try catch up, while weather triggers bearish fundament... that would be serious.
I think we have seen something similar last year, haven't we?
Those are just my speculations, but I would not rule this scenario out completely...
But as always.. I have no magic ball, we will see soon.
Have a good week.