Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
What we need to remember is that OI of the systems do not add weight or strength to the market. They will buy and sell indefinitely regardless of their position. There are other spec sectors that are not as programmed and are more spontaneous. They consist of other managed money, and all the other spec sectors. These unpredictable sectors can easily reverse the trend of the market or sustain it and, imo, are a consideration when evaluating the OI. What has been going on for the last couple of COT reports is that longs have been liquidating and there have been few new buyers in the specs. I thought that this would be a bearish factor but the market has held up nonetheless. But you are correct that the longs will stop selling at some point, but not the commercials. We may get a better picture after options expire and after FND which will also coincide with the end of frost season, except for some unusual event.