Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

Options Activity/Market *PIC*

The market just had a slight dip and is recovering. All markets are quiet and apparently in summer mode. The roll may bring unexpected action but the market remains steady. The sentiment is bullish as the Sep 150.00 strike call shorts have been covering and rolling into higher strikes. Sentiment is not reality but coffee is capable of surprises. For now, 143.20 is a more reasonable target.

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Options Update by the Numbers- Softs and Grains: Midday Review

It’s a quiet summer Monday with only Coffee showing some reasonable gains. Although Sugar is falling at the same percentage Coffee is rising. In terms of volatility, this just hasn’t been the day. Not one market shown below has traded beyond its average trading range. Although Sugar and Cocoa traded beyond their break-even points, implied volatility has been mostly flat across the board. The table below shows the numbers. September Coffee is at its highest levels since April and it has the highest RSI on the board, but it’s not that elevated. If you have a strong market bias, today is the day to call and discuss it; it’s quiet here. Hope all is well.

*The Options Table below provides the approximate straddle price at the time of the update using the futures price used at calculation, its implied volatility, the break-even point that the underlying contract must move to make up for the decay of the options. It includes the end of day 20-Day historical volatility of the front month contract and the 9 and 14 Day relative strength index of the front month. It also provides information pertaining to the volatility of the futures and the change in implied volatility (make note that yesterday’s ATM strike, not shown, is compared to the current ATM strike. Feel free to contact me with any questions or to discuss strategy.

Fred Oltarsh
Options & Futures Execution, Strategy, Analysis and Risk Management
Main: 212-549-4100
Direct: 212-549-4114
Cell: 917-656-1767
Email: fred.oltarsh@intlfcstone.com
ICE Chat: foltarsh1