Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading

Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

Next weeks of Xmas Cocoa

IF a Bull cocoa trader feels strongly that the market is still in an uptrend and the last 8 trading sessions have been a mild correction then one should look for the next swing high to occur somewhere between 2009 to 2050 with an obvious subsequent swing low(higher than 1942) before it rises to threaten 2114 – 27 zone of resistance. IF however when/if the price drops out of the 1930’s I would imagine this current mild uptrend is over till next time.

IF a Bear cocoa trader has confidence the last 8 trading sessions trending down will continue and yesterday’s low of 1942 will be a swing low then one would look to price action to form next swing high between 1994 to 2025 with an obvious subsequent drop(with other swL & swH) to eventually retest strong 1833 to 1794 zone of support. In forming the upcoming swing high if price rises into and above 2030’s one might want to pause and watch with cautious patience.

Shifting gears and taking a Pure Chartist point of view for the Big Picture and looking at the monthly chart it looks as if for the last seven months like a rounding bottom. And the weekly looks like some sort of perverse inverted head and shoulders bottom. The daily looks like a cow’s bagged utters(but that’s just me).

I have no position in the market. I do have a very strong bias that I can’t ignore and that is I see no “real” reason for price to rise very high for a very long time. Cocoa market is famous for being a rumor infested market and I’m never surprised but always irritated when they start to fly. Just an opinion.

I have and will continue to have fun watching the price action next week. Prosperous trades to all. KennB