Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
It is definitely interesting to me that there were no exercises of the 140.00 puts so close to settlement. I woould think that these long puts were hedged. So now they are long futures because for sure that they did not sell 1,609 lots above 140.00 on the close on Friday. It would be a bearish factor if we have all these lots, or a large part of, this number for sale. And it would be neither bullish or bearish if the holders of the puts were unhedged. But in response to your question, yes, those that did not exercise the puts are expecting higher prices imo.
The certified stocks only represent what ICE stocks and and do not completely represent consuming countries stocks. Individual country imports I think are a better gauge. Honduras has been generally the sole contributor of coffee into exchange warehouses. They have had good production numbers. The mystery to me is for an origin that has been the primary issuer of notices on ICE why have they stopped issuing. Yet they continue to deposit every day. The certified are a good form collateral for many,
I may be wrong but I think export numbers are based on current exports, bills of lading. I believe that any import/export numbers are trailing indicators, imo, for events that have already occurred. GT