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Hurricane Watch *PIC*

The 6 day GFS is becoming more clear on Irma's strength and path. I am expecting the storm to strengthen as it is due to track towards Cuba and Florida. It turns out that this is about the warmest water in the Atlantic ocean--see pic, which fuels the hurricane. With any luck, the storm will track in the ocean but would then enter the gulf of Mexico which puts us right back in trouble as it would make landfall somewhere in the gulf coast. The good news is that the field of activity is not very broad. I remember Gilbert vividly where it spun the whole area of the gulf of Mexico--huge system.

If anyone wants to track this more closely, here are the maps of the GFS. All fields, all days. I am posting here the sea surface temperature. Note the dark red between Cuba and Florida, right where the storm is projected to track on Saturday.

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Hurricane Watch *PIC*
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