Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Thank you Juan. Whenever we have a two directional market, the COT is more difficult to read and subject to more assumptions. The market began on a firm note but demonstrated weakness for the remainder of the period as large traders and swap dealers continued liquidating longs. Large traders also sold short. The managed money longs are a surprise but we know that the systems funds are short, so the new longs are funds other than systems. This latter group did add to shorts on the way down. Commercials added on both sides of the market depending on where prices were. To me the report reflects normal behavior of the sectors involved. We now see what may have added to the weakness that we have seen for the remainder of the weak. It’s possible that at some point the managed money longs of the report liquidated. It’s anyones guess.
For this coming week to me the market remains featureless and disinterested. In spite of the coming rains, fundamentals are still friendly. We have several reports during the last couple of weeks of anticipated lower production. We also have Viet Nam reporting lower exports. It doesn’t matter much if the investment world cares little about futures and especially coffee. Presently we see the market boxed in by commercials and other specs who are presently going long. Waiting for the systems to reverse is the only game in town it seems. Both commercials and systems care zero about fundamentals or about the coming rains. For now, the market remains on a soft note.