Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
regarding your comments and questions, I am here and ready to help you challenge your thoughts :)
Hopefully, I can also become better trader soon.. preferably before going bust.
Regarding explaining weakening prices in Nam and BR, I have no explanation, I just see it unsustainable. Market can behave irrationally for surprisingly long time.
Also sorry, but I do not follow HRS wheat, and thus do not know if there is any relevance to coffee.
Regarding crop size, there are many estimates on crop size, but important factor is also pace and volume of crop released to market for the current price.
I guess export numbers and local Brazil price tell the story, but big market players decided to ignore it as long as they can, and other origins help for the moment.
I will skip weather comments because it is not discussed in my original question of low export figures and substitution origins.
I would however like to hear more about "Coffee has always been a global market in terms of consumption. It is now in the process of becoming a global market in terms of production."
Market was IMO always global for both sides, but it was dominated by Brazil and since 2010+ also by Vietnam for Robustas. The rest of the world however covers half of the annual production.
So, I do not exactly know what you are trying to say, since Brasil has an important place (a third) in the equation.
More severe dominance is on import side, 55% goes to EU, 25% is represented by US, some 7% Japan and 4% Russia.
But what is the point knowing that?
How does this not make 20% yoy decrease from Brazil and Vietnam not alarming?