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Re: SCASA
In Response To: Re: SCASA ()

Hello and thank you.

Well, I think that both low and high exports can be bearish under CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES :)
The reason for the volume of exports is important, IMO. And that is what we argue since May or so

Some say exports are low because nobody wants to buy and that pushes price down. It seems correct at the first glance.
However, in that case a panic among sellers would cause higher sales even for lower price IF the outlook would really be bearish.
What we see is however further decrease of sales.
So, my take on that is, that initially built up of stock in consuming countries in anticipation of whatever (trade war, off year,..)
caused temporary pressure on prices. Those who trade based on stock development surely were motivated to open short positions.
But I think that it met with the lower offer due to combination of low price and low availability on supply side

If I am wrong stock in consuming countries will remain rather high and exports will pick up even on current price levels.
If I am right stock in consuming will decrease, exports will not go up, but the price will.

To make it more complicated, I think that Vietnam's low exports are speculative driven, while Brazil's are shortage driven.

JK

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