Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
When you look at this interview, you see a prominent member of PROCAFE genuinely worried about Brazilian production for 18-19. This person, who also appears to be an expert market analyst, speaks of the damaged 18-19 crop, saying that Brazil "needed" a super bumper crop for 18-19 which is no longer to be. Well, Brazil might need it but the world prices don´t. What is clear here is that Brazil, even at current prices, has a goal to achieve larger and larger crop numbers. He mentions low costs that no one else has, and stresses that if Brazil does not fill its market share, someone else will. Low prices appear not to worry him as much as the lower crop numbers for producers.
So why is this alarming ? I can say on the bearish camp that Brazil is nowhere near going into loss because of low prices, and aiming at higher at higher disregarding low prices, giving priority to lower costs through increased yields.
On the bullish camp, if this person with his concerns is genuinely saying 18-19 was damaged, then it should be bullish for the coming season.
This interview is an eye opener.