Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Brazil is obviously important, but the globalization of coffee production has diminished it.
See carve outs from I&M below.
The National Coffee Institute in HONDURAS have reported that the country’s coffee exports for the month of August were 221,092 bags or 93.76% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 456,903 bags. This improved performance the National Coffee Institute report, has seen the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first eleven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year increase by 1.94 million bags over the same period in the previous coffee year, to total 7.08 million bags.
Within the same report the National Coffee Institute in Honduras have forecast that with this month’s exports, that they foresee that the country’s coffee exports for the present coffee year shall end up approximately 2.1 million bags higher than the previous coffee year, at a total of 7.2 million bags. This being a remarkable performance in terms of the fact that Honduras is only a relatively small nation, with a land mass of only 112,492 square kilometres.
The UGANDA Coffee Development Authority UCDA have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of August were 127,281 bags or 43.73% higher than the same month last year, at a total of 418,340 bags. This higher figure contributes to the countries cumulative coffee exports for the first eleven months of the present October 2016 to September 2017 coffee year, to be 1,157,374 bags or 37.26% higher than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 4,263,985 bags.
It is an impressive figure and would suggest that Uganda shall end the present coffee year, with coffee exports of approximately 4.5 million bags. Confirming the countries status as Africa’s leading coffee exporter, while illustrating in terms of the successful growth of the Ugandan coffee industry over the past few years, the positive influences and the improved financial farm gate prices, that have come with the implementation of a free market structure for the Ugandan coffee industry.
This improved performance from COLOMBIA and despite some weather-related problems for the mid-year Mitaca crop harvest, sets the country on route for the forecasted larger new crop of more than 15 million bags, for this new October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year. This factor and accompanied by forecasts for a larger overall new crop from neighbouring CENTRAL AMERICA and MEXICO is proving to be a negative factor for sentiment within the New York market, for the present.
The Coffee Board of INDIA and despite some earlier scare stories of a dip in production from farmers organisations, have forecasted that India is due for an overall 12.3% increase in coffee production for the new October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year, which they estimate shall total 5.84 million bags. In this respect, they foresee a 14% increase in robusta coffee production and an 8.5% increase in arabica coffee production for this new coffee year, with a ratio of 70.6 to 29.4 robusta to arabica coffees.
This news from India and following rainfall reports out of the main arabica coffee districts within Brazil and the forecasts for growing Colombian and Central American coffee supply, all add to the prevailing bearish nature of the volatile New York arabica coffee market.