Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading

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In Response To: SCASA ()

Hi there,

again for me something to question in this report
"Presently the weather forecasts indicate no reason to fear any damaging long dry spells, but there shall be no certainty over this matter until well into the coming month"

So far, the report "very dry" soil and forecast of no rain for 14 days, really no damage fears?
Next crop IMO widely depends on irrigation, which scope and effectiveness is unknown to me.

Also what is said to matter most now (like every year :-)
"next 2018 Brazil coffee crop, as it shall need to be a large surplus crop if it is to assist to both rebuild the much-depleted Brazil coffee stocks"

Well, same story as last year and years before
Year Wished/told 2be necessary Probable Reality
15/16 60M 48M harvested *
16/17 60M 45-48M
17/18 65M ?

*15/16 was saved by stock depletion

What I want to say, every year the crop is bad, but market is told to focus on the next years crop.
That is either big lie in the numbers or one day the future crop promises just turn out to not fill up today's cup...
Anyone helps me understand that? Thanks


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