Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
In my understanding, he wasn't mentioning lower prices from current level, just lower prices in general, as in resulting from higher productivity. I think his message was more "We have to constantly improve our productivity and efficiency. If we do that we can live in a scenario with lower and lower prices. If we are inefficient, someone will come and take our place", not "these prices are good". If I had had my 60 bags/ha this year, and the help of exchange rate, I'd be ok with current prices. Not jumping up and down, but ok. But we had roughly half that, so I'm not so happy...
And when he says Brazil "needs" a big harvest, and this is what a lot of people say around here, I think ins in the sense that growers need a good year and it would be in their best interest to keep a relevant position in the international scenario.There are advantages to being the largest producer. With about 30% of the world market, Brazil has lost most of them and should work not to lose all.
Current prices here do not warrant new investment. I for once, won't plant a single tree if without a direct trade client already in line.