Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Half the ideal yield is not good enough for me, by any measure! I said 60 bags / hectare might be ok for me with current prices. I've had a couple of years of 60, but very few. An average of 60 bags/hectare is absurdly high! The national average is below 30. I had less than 30 bags this year and I'm losing a LOT of money.
What I'm saying is just this: there is no signal in what that guy said, neither he is an expert market analyst (or he may be, but we can't tell from this video). He was just stating the obvious. What would expect him to say? "Well, I think we've grown tired of coffee after a couple of hundred years, so let's cut them trees, send the prices higher and so the Vietnamese can take the profit"?
And I am cutting the middlemen whenever I can. Didn't I say that I won't plant a single tree without a direct trade client lined up? I do, but the vast majority of growers don't.
You say that "The market is able to see right through producers intentions." My point is: there is nothing to see!!! No secret or hidden intentions. Brazil has fallen short of its productive potential for that last couple of years. Obviously, the hope they'll have a full crop in the near future. He's not saying there'll be more planting or more investment.
If you want to read anything into what he said, read this: 30% of the coffee growers (Brazil) have not received adequate returns on their investments since roughly 2013 until, at least, 2019. They can only hope for a good harvest in 2020.