Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
of course and the article says it that way, I just simplified for easy calculation.
To be honest these numbers are surprising for me. Fluctuation is enormous, I assume it has something to do with off-year cycle too.
There is absolutely no way that consumption fluctuates like that, now I understand why such spikes and falls YoY are possible.
In a long run. also one must not forget that not only amount of bags/ha is up, also the volume of required labor went down.
How much of mechanization is today available compared to the 70ties 80ties in Brazil... it must be enormous difference.
All that helped to offset and even exceed the price decrease from the seemingly high but rightfully high prices per bag in the past.
The tricky question is where it stops and what is actually the sustainable average level.
I think that increase 4-8% annually is wishful thinking or a challenge.
It might have been achievable in 70ties to 90ties, but both mechanization and the nature have their limits.