Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
About the chart below.
I started to make this chart available in 2015 because there was a very strong daily discussion about Brazilian exports. These discussions were biased by some. I use this data in my decisions and I have never used false data because I do not want to take wrong decisions.
Some try to calculate the trend line but they can not because I never use arithmetic mean within the month to perform similar jobs because the economy is dynamic and does not respect monthly periods. Therefore, the calculation of the trend line considers the most recent data of the series with greater weight, since these are more close to the target. So do not try to average daily exports multiplied by working days. If some want to generate your own models, they can do it. I would like to know other export models.
Never use the export information made available on the CECAFE website because it is always outdated and will only be updated in the monthly bulletin of the following month. Some are critical because the certification is greater than the shipped export. Be careful with this information.
Last month, shipped exports were less than certified exports, but corrections to these data are common in the following months. Usually the shipped export is GREATER than the certified one.