Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Hi Flavio. The market certainly looks good. It is responding based on what we see in the OI every day, and as confirmed by the latest COT report. It is wise to remember, however, that from this point on, including last Friday likely, we will see negative changes in the OI indicating short covering by the systems and long liquidation by every other sector. It is a rally that imo is predestined to fail. Of course nothing is written in stone and some revelation can surface that negatively impacts the crop, or some other news. Barring this possibility, the market will be a liquidation market. We saw a glimpse of this on Friday as shorts were buying above 130.00 and longs simply hit any bid that they could and drove the market back to below 130.00. We have seen this liquidation activity during the last two times that we rallied. It is difficult to say to what level our market will go but I think that we have a very good picture of what the different players will be doing.
Great purchases btw. I bought slightly higher than you but sold some of my contracts out on Friday. At the end of the week Nov options will expire. It is an off month but the market tends to take a break at striking price levels. I greatly appreciate all your charts. Thank you.