Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Finally, what we spoke about here on CTF, happened - market reversed. But before that something else took place, namely hedgers bought decline and managed money sold it. Probably that was reason why decline took a bit longer than some anticipated. Changes:
- Hedgers (in red) added 7,400 longs and cut 1,600 shorts. Net - 9,000 to the long side;
- Non-hedgers (in orange) added 800 longs and 12,500 shorts. Net - 11,800 the short side;
- Managed money (in yellow) cut 2,300 shorts and added 11,400 shorts. Net - 13,800 to the short side.
1 fund joined bulls and 9 funds joined bears.
Net position indexes (in green) behaved in expected manner. OI index (in blue) moved noticeably. Regarding total market participation (in purple) - hedgers passed a small share of the market to speculators but immaterial to be concerned with.
Latest reported net position of MM was -27k with record minimum at -44k and record maximum at 59k. They moved by 14k just over reported week - a big move, one more move of such magnitude and record low would be here again. However, with lack of strongly bearish mix of news and fundamentals this is not likely in my opinion. So up we go. I do not have faith into a strong bull rally either. Probably, something like 135-138 will be a ceiling. Time will tell.