Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Brazil, crop derived from 2016/17
Brazil is a continental country, it is very difficult to make a forecast of harvest with acuracia, then every year we hear numbers of the most varied in relation to the size of the crop. There is the concept of derived harvest, which is to quantify exactly how much was harvested, but this number is only possible after the calculation of the inventory of Brazilian coffee stocks. Brazilian legislation requires that official and private stocks be collected on March 31 of each year. Based on this survey of stocks and verifying the use (coffee disappearance) of exports and domestic consumption, we can quantify BRAZILIAN COFFEE PRODUCTION, thus, taking into account the official data, we have that Brazilian coffee production in 2016/2017 was of only 49.73 million bags of coffee, much lower than the forecasts of the USDA and those forecasting a harvest in Brazil.
Annex follows the worksheet with the data.
Formula = Inventory LAST (March 31, 2017) + Disappearance of CAFÉ - Previous Stock (March 31, 2016)