Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
This will be a long post. It is not intended to create horror stories as Lionel calls them, and contemplates both bullish and bearish points of view. It is also not intended to conclude anything--yet.
I have been sent some pictures of aborted flower buds, one of them is in this post. I can see a fairly healthy tree here through the person's hands. Green leaves, brown fresh wood, and, yes, the flower buds look fairly healthy, unburnt, good size and just about ready to open flower. One would think that they have been deliberately peeled off the branch before flower, and that everything is a hoax-- is it ? That would certainly be the bearish point of view. Ultimately however, there is no bearish or bullish to stop the market from doing its own thing based on what really happens. What I am interested in knowing here is the simple plain truth. And I don't think anyone knows it yet. Good rains ? called bluff on bumper 18/19 crop predictions, and now those estimates have to show their cards. Flowerings should now be starting, how is it going ? I called on Orb and MoY, whom I consider balanced CTF Brazilian members. No one in the market will care if the flowering is disappointing or not, but everyone will have to act accordingly. Naturally, if this is an early indication that the truth of things will now be revealed, and this truth consists of the feared aborted flowering, there will be nothing from stopping the market from soaring prices. If, on the other hand, this is a very focalized occurrence and flowering is normal to high, this will go down as another of Lionel's "horror stories" , as he appropriately calls them.
I have to stress that the picture from where this picture was taken from, is nothing like the defoliated, older, or very dry trees that I have been sent in other pictures. These flower buds come from trees in much better state. I wonder what it is like in those other trees ? Being as dry as it was, IMHO, the trees were in no position to flower and sustain bumper crop sizes.
So, what is going on ? I am not there, but there are members that are close to the action, receiving reports and feedback from all over. It is my firm belief that the market cannot be fooled, and what is, is and will be manifested in price action. Believe me, if consensus there, is that flowering is aborting, for their own good, everyone will have to cover up. Otherwise the market will just act up another small rally to previous levels based on the usual suspects-- COT, prices too low for enough selling etc.
Quick look at the weather reveals drier and drier forecasts for the coming 10 days, with no signs of a sustained rainy pattern. I have to state clearly though that a "blocking HIGH" pressure ridge like we have seen on previous droughts is not in place. This drought has other origins.