Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
What I am hearing from commercial sources in Brazil is that average crop conditions are fairly good thus having high output expectations for 18/19 is the most reasonable approach at this stage of the crop.
Remember that making assumptions about the final output before green cherries have effectively & properly formed at the trees is always tricky. Market must wait some weeks in order to asses the real potential of Brazil 18/19.
In the other hand, Arabica market is slowly getting over supplied. Honduras is a big weight to the market that is feeding the fire every single day in form of certificate coffee that leads to the board because is hard to find a house for those beans.
Colombian differentials is one of the hot spots that feels the pressure because of that excessive future Arabica availability. Internal market is working at dispair between what the roasters are willing to pay and what the producers are looking for.
Have a good night