Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

Oi/Market/Volatility

Today’s OI is very puzzling but the flat Dec change and the large increase in Mar, together with the activity in DecMar, are all clues. Apparently there has been a lot of rolling of Dec longs into Mar. Therefore, the strength in the market, before today obviously, is attributed to new buying in Dec as well as new selling. The systems short covering is not evident but it is nevertheless present. If the COT were to be released for yesterday only it would likely show new spec buying, large and/or managed, and managed short buying together with commercial and other groups new selling. Of course, it’s my guess only. To me the OI on its own is bullish but the market seems to be ignoring it for now. DecMar is now -3.75 last. The Real is steady as BRL is 3.1626 -.0175. The $ continues to weaken as bond futures slowly climb.

KC ATM implied vol continues to soften

X= 23.9 -1.4
Z= 25.8 -1.1
H= 24.8 -1.45
K= 25.00 -.85