Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

COT Comment *PIC*

Greetings,

The report was delayed, again but market should not be too far because the week after it was quite sleepy. Changes:
- hedgers (in red) cut 7,800 longs and 8,300 shorts. Net - 600 to the long side;
- non-hedgers (in orange) added 200 longs and 900 shorts. Net - 700 to the short side;
- managed money (in yellow) added less than a hundred longs and 2,400 shorts. Net - 2,400 to the short side.
2 funds joined bulls and 2 funds joined bears.

Net position indexes (in green) did not move much. Index of OI (in blue) lost a bit. Index of market participation (in purple) shows that market is strongly dominated by non-hedgers.

It is worth noting that
(a) Managed money are now extremely short , index of MM is 0% is the most important category - 1 year deep analysis of Old crop meaning that MM is more bearish on 2018/19 crop than they were bearish on 2017/18 one. Water turned into ice.
(b) At the same time temperature of hedgers sector is far from boiling which leads me to a conclusion that hedgers will continue to sell until managed money choke and rush for cover.
(c) Lastly, we can see that non-hedgers gained control over a very substantial part of the market and unless they start to liquidate the market direction(-less) will remain intact.

My take that market is in plateau phase with some downward bias remains intact.

GL&GT.