Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


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Market *PIC*

We have a flat market this morning with no range. The weakness has spilled over from yesterday’s close. Additional weakness will be seen at 8:00 when the systems funds come in. However, there is good support at these levels and lower, crowded bids in March and scattered in the forwards, as a result of commercial and others buying. Several of us in the forum expected a higher close but as what has been typical of this market the buying, other than resting bids, is inconsistent and unreliable. Can’t win without losing once in a while. RC remains relatively steady as the arb eased to 47.12 and the JanMar has jumped to 12 premium bid. USDBRL is 3,2448 +.0034 and the COP closed yesterday at 2996.30 +4.30. Most currencies are lower against the $ but bond futures continue to slowly climb. Oil is down and continues to be volatile. Both oil and cocoa options are trading at an implied volatility less than their 20 day or even 50 day historical volatility. Buying straddles, just for one example, and scalping delta should be a winning strategy. Equities are down as is sugar and cocoa. Cotton is higher. Metals are higher and trying to hold on to their gains.

Our market remains pressured with good support mostly related to options.

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Market *PIC*
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