Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
why are you so irritated recently?
What I see here are people talking their perception of fundamental situation and some other people drawing technical charts,
and since these are two different approaches, their views may differ, but I think that both have their right to express themselves.
Or could you please further explain what do you mean under "cheer leading camp" in relation with CTF?
Further, I wonder what do you consider being "over sensitive?" and about what exactly?
What is actually your definition of a forum and how it is related or better to say excluding someone being in particular investment position or having a particular perspective on things.
Are not you a little bit too sensitive as well?
Regarding your point, I think a rally scenario is very well possible, even more probable than further fall by another 10-15%.
1) too big open interest
2) fundamental price floor (coffee is not virtual asset, it has its cost and objective value)
3) low producing country stock aka cushion in case something goes wrong with the weather
You can argue that price is down for a reason and the reason is coffee stock in consuming countries.
And that might be correct, even though I have different opinion, I hope that does not disturb you too much.
I see it that coffee in EU warehouses will be consumed one day, and if there is not enough new crop futures market will be squeezed.
So far it plays the best for option sellers (both call and put), not that much for short sellers or put buyers and the very bad for long buyers.
But it can switch in a moment.
As you say, the moment of truth about Brazil is coming.