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Market/CONAB ‘17’18 Production

It’s a quiet pre-holiday session and with prices holding just about unchanged. The depth of market is thin but bids outweigh offers. Too early and quiet to get a sense of direction but it seems that the steadiness will prevail. Systems will resume buying shortly. Spec short selling increased as shown on yesterday’s flat OI. USDBRL is 3.3014 +.0036. Just saw:

CONAB: Brazil’s 2017-2018 Coffee Crop Pegged at 44.97 Million Bags

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – According to the latest survey from the National Supply Company (CONAB), the Brazilian coffee crop in 2017-2018 is estimated at 44,970,000 bags of 60 kg, down 12.5% compared to the previous year, when it reached 51,370,000 bags. The harvested area also fell. The reduction was 4.3%, resulting in 1,870,000 hectares.

The fall in numbers is mainly explained by the so-called off year of the Arabica coffee crop, which accounts for 76.2% of total production. Arabica coffee production totaled 34,250,000 bags, down 21.1% compared to the 2016 crop.

The average productivity of Arabica also fell to 23.07 bags per hectare, 18.8% smaller than that of the previous crop. The harvested area receded 2.7%, and stood at 1,480,000 hectares.

Coffee production of the Conilon type (Robusta) reached 10,720,000 of bags, with an increase of 34.2% on the previous harvest. The average productivity was also positive, reaching 28.1 bags/hectare, 49.4% above the 18.81 bags per hectare of the previous cycle. The harvested area of Conilon was 381,580 hectares, 10.2% lower than the last harvest.

In Minas Gerais, the main producer state, production fell 20.4% compared to the 2016 harvest, with 24.1 million of bags of Arabica and 343,700 of Conilon, totaling 24,450,000 bags. In Espirito Santo, the second largest producer, the crop fell 1.1%, due to the lack of seedlings for planting and the effects of the negative biennial cycle in Arabica coffee. The state produced 5,920,000 bags of Conilon and 2,950,000 of Arabica, which gives a total of 8,870,000 bags.

The survey was held between November 26th and December 9th in all producer states.

Alexis Rubinstein

Other currencies are mostly down against the $. Bond futures are subdued but slightly higher. Metals are struggling, and equities are higher. Crude is slightly higher and softs are higher except for cocoa which is lower. KC is ticking down slightly.

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Market/CONAB ‘17’18 Production
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