Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Reporting period : 12/27/17 through 1/2/2018.
Trading range : 12170 - 13065 .
Settlement : 13020 (+8.00).
Total OI change : -4,066.
From the frozen Northeast region of the US , I present the first COT of 2018. An interesting report. We see the all important Large fund SHORTS trimming their gross short by -7,544. Interestingly, large fund longs were buying, likely as the market was at the lower end of the range. With +2,131 new longs, we have a NET change of +9,675 leaving a NET short of -48,883. This follows the record short position achieved in consecutive reports. Still, we see the GROSS position of the shorts still at 92% of the that maximum position. Notice, we see a decline of -11 traders in this category.
As we continue along the non commercial sector, it is no surprise to see both large and small traders liquidating longs that were accumulated as the market bounced around the lows. It is a pattern that has developed for some time and continues to inhibit a runaway to the upside. We see the impact of options throughout the non commercial sector on both sides of the market.
As we go to the commercials, no surprise to see commercial SHORTS take advantage of the price spike and add 2,547 new shorts. I find it interesting that commercial longs were sellers of 5,200 contracts (primarily in the form of futures). Curious to hear from Tango and others on the behavior of the commercial longs.
As we begin the re-balance, it will be interesting to watch the impact on OI. Also, I will be watching the indexes to see if we see any substantial movement in that position. I am not sure why it is so subjective, but we have seen estimates ranging from +7k to +11 K in terms of new contracts to be added in KC. I would also keep a close eye on the TAS throughout the upcoming week.
Good trading to all.