Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Thank you JuanV for coming to my defense regarding my reporting of releases, specifically those that pertain to production estimates.
A few months ago, there was a coffe convention in Switzerland. ECOM made the announcement that they projected Brazil to produce 65mm bags for ‘18’19. The market immediately dropped and it continued to drop as their announcement became more widely known. To argue that ECOM is incorrect, it is exaggerating and it’s a mistake for the market to fall based on their announcement may be valid but it may not be realistic to pursue, and certainly not realistic to blame the messenger. Whether ECOM’s projection is warranted or not, some traders may have gotten jittery or outright believed them. After all, isn’t there an apprehension even today, and in the forum, about the possibility of a high production number for Brazil? The important lesson to take away from ECOM announcement and aftermath is not the legitimacy of the 65mm projection but that ECOM is important in the community of those that report regularly. More importantly is that we as traders can capitalize on news regardless how evidently off it is.
I must say however that I have become discriminant in which report, or reporter, I post, but I tend to post based on what I consider generally reliable venues. It isn’t so much whether I believe a source is credible or not but what do most people, as well as media, think that they’re credible or not. Spill the Beans? I don’t think that this blog has any impact on the market.
I’d like to add that I don’t really care if a report that I’m about to post is contrary to my position. Let the market flush it out. Truth is always refreshing even if it hurts and a good trader should never be dogmatic, accept a report or even his/her view incontrovertibly.