Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Hello ANTI, I would say life support system. Every story about oversupply overhanging the market, which seems to be supported on a daily basis by rising stocks in the ICE, indicates that this market stands an excellent chance of being assassinated. Similarities come to mind about what happenned to the COCOA market many years ago.
What producers have to do is figure a way to stay afloat. Cut costs and leave farms in a state of lesser production on the ready for better prices. Maximizing crop size at these prices or prices to come will result in diminishing returns. Many will not survive. Evidently excess production has to be cut down, and in the process some producing countries eliminated as such. This year I heard of a desperate producer waltzing around town over the loud speaker wanting to hire coffee pickers for 50 cents a pound. A lot of the coffee will stay on the trees. The producers fate as R has said time and over again, is fairly clear and predictable. People as well as workers here are stepping away from coffee growing. Then you have the boomers like Honduras. So it will all balance out until they too start to decrease production like Colombia did from their 17 million star crops years ago. What is curious is the Cocoa industry never could recover cocoa production to where they wanted after they effectively ended the cocoa culture with the slaughter in many countries and left alone Ivory Coast and Ghana as their only sources. When I hear Ivory Coast and Ghana I immediately relate to Brazil and Vietnam in coffee. I wonder if Coffee is headed the same direction.