Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Coffee Market Report
12 Jan 2018
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics IBGE has come to the fore with a forecast for a 14.9% increase for the Brazil coffee crop for this year, which they foresee to be around 53.2 million bags. This agency is however traditionally conservative in its forecasts and usually around 8% to 10% below reality, as was their 2017 crop figure of 46.3 million bags significantly lower than most other reliable reports. Thus, if one is to apply the discount figure of say 9% below reality to the forecast, many would see this forecast to be indicating a much larger 2018 crop of closer to 58 million bags and therefore, a report that is unlikely to do much to change the prevailing negative sentiment.