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Weekly Short Report Terra Forte

Dear friends,

Same pattern with exporters in the market trying to extend coverage in a difficult environment.
Producers offers are smaller than the demand, as a consequence differentials feel the burden. NY stuck in a clearly downtrend, currency appreciating and frozen internal prices. Not a pleasant sandwich.

IBGE released its first crop estimate at 53,2 million bags being Arabica at 41,4 and Conillon 11,8.
Effect was sword punch in a German panzer if the intention was to shock the market.
Main issue in our opinion was the Conillon number, since a couple of years Arabica numbers from both Conab and IBGE are closer to reality.
The good thing though, like every year we have two main pieces of the puzzle. The extremes at the moment are 65 and 53. You make your pick now.

Weather remains fine for both varieties.

Shipments continue in a downtrend. Cecafe has not closed December numbers yet. Last publication states 2.580.000 bags and January shipments running slow as well.

Wishing you a nice weekend

Terra Forte Trading Desk