Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
You never have to defend yourself here. Your work and your insight is invaluable.
In an effort to keep an objective forum, I would hope that the few news outlets we have that provide news can be taken at their word. They have no horse in the race and there is no agenda by the reporters, particularly our friends at Reuters who go above and beyond to keep us informed.
In terms of estimates and projections, they are just that and I think we are all wise enough to read with due diligence. As for the 90's I take you at your word. I can say now, its a different world and algorithms react to certain phrases or numbers that may be attached to a story. My experience over the last 10 years trading electronically tells me the market will in fact react if a significant piece of news hits the tape. Take the FcStone field survey back in 2014 in the midst of the drought. Today, I think everyone is expecting this market to move higher and the feeling is that "shorts" will get spooked to cover based on some key piece of news. This may very well take place, but until now, that piece of news has been non-existent.
Meantime, unlike what you describe, technicals very much rule the day. I will add to that, the significance of the options impact on the market. Today for example, they continues to pound the skew. Take a look at closing volatility. With just over a week to go, the KCJ vol came in 2% today alone. Yesterday -1%. The market is extremely quiet and yet, there is not much left to decay ahead of J expiration next Friday (3/9). The market has established a complacency with low expectations. Sound familiar ?? To me, it reminds me of the equity markets (more importantly the VIX) late January . The stock market would never go down right??? No volatility. No downside protection. And then what happened?? I firmly believe this is what will lift coffee from the grave and provide some sparks. Perhaps a major piece of news will get the ball rolling, I don't know. What I do know is the FUNDS remain massively short and the market has created a comfort zone for shorts. Particularly of late, as new shorts are piling on at the low end of the trading range. Just my 2 cents.
As for your posting ALF, no one is saying not to post. And not everyone will always agree with what you or I have to say. The point is to keep the dialogue flowing and the forum active. The SCASA as you point out will not catch slack because it is a daily REPORT. That commentary is being shared. Again, it is up to each user as to how they will utilize such info. We at the forum --when we post ideas/views, we become open for question, critique and correction. This is not a bad thing, nor is it personal. I am sure if Lionel was actively posting, he would also be questioned at times in order to clarify or defend a certain point. I have said 1000x over the years, dialogue and at times debate is good and beneficial. So long as it is done in a professional way we are all the better. Once we begin to look like a Mickey Mouse forum/blog, then the value begins to erode away and what we have built does not look as impressive. Hope this helps.