Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
The opening was quiet but at almost 5:00 good buying came in to set the high thus far. Selling then ensued and the market has since been quiet but steady. Yesterday the selling was relentless but so was the buying as the market continues to define the narrow range. There is no reason to think that the market won’t continue in this pattern as the buyers of 120.00 become the sellers at 124.00. However the Rabobank report is a dose of reality. Rabobank has been diligent, imo, in reporting close to flawless estimates throughout the years, (Please correct me if you disagree). For the 18/19 crop they were first to project a 59.50 estimate which was then reestimated downwards and now once again meaningfully reduced further but always siting the broca impact of last year. Again, the dynamics of the market may not change but the chickens will come home to roost sooner or later. The weaker market has put some pressure on spreads as forward buying continues. Unfilled bids are still present in the forward months but the depth of market is already showing reversal as the ratio of bids to offers a penny either side of 122.00 is 1:2. RC is generally keeping up with KC as the arbitrage is 42.02. The Real is steady today as USDBRL is 3.2284 -.0133 as the COP is 2855.50 +3.85. The MXN that may be relevant to the NAFTA/tariffs calamity is 18.6819 -.1150 (-.60%). The $ is very weak against all currencies except the ¥. Bond futures are also soft and keeping a lid on metals which are trying to rally. Crude and equities continue to be strong. Cocoa is a monster (got out too soon) and so is cotton (got out too soon) while sugar is slightly higher. KC just made a new high of 122.05. The market is steady and lagging other softs.