Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Hello Tango, no one is talking about 19/20 yet but I betcha that the trade is already doing simulation 24 months out. A 57-58 million bag crop is still a bumper crop and trees cannot hold two in a row--the following year is an off year and I wonder if the crop will be above 50 million for 19/20. Maybe our Brazilian friends can opine on that for us.
My point is: it is very easy to drive prices lower on speculation of a large crop. Fact of the matter however is that right now oversupply is not flooding the markets. Buying attitude could easily change and if this attitude catches the spec shorts as short as they are because the industry all of a sudden needs coffee, watch out.