Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Very calm week with exporters in the market covering immediate needs. Stable prices internally with all qualities within a tight R$ 50,00 range.
Next week many Brazilians will be attending annual NCA seminar. Good opportunity to visit and exchange ideas with the American industry.
We had a good and healthy discussion during this week about stock situation in Brazil with various sources.
Most said 30% in producers hands and some found too much, but digesting the numbers it is not a shocking number.
Always difficult to put on a number due the size of the country, size of internal market and the divergence on crop numbers. As we reported in the past, Terra Forte uses the official ABIC number for internal consumption, we do not count stocks around Brazil because we don´t feel comfortable with this type of information because we feel impossible to find out how much coffee is kept in farms if there still coffee kept in farms, numbers are collected by telephone from exporters, middlemen etc. Anyway we accompany the flow and if needed we adjust the crop if necessary.
Below you will find our view and of course some will accept, some will not. It is the beauty in coffee.
According to Safras&Mercados who does a good job accompanying the commercialization is at 78% sold.
TF stocks March 01st - 17,0 Mio
Crop of 48 Mio bags * 22% Producers hands - 10,6 Mio
Exporters / Middlemen / Industry hands - 6,4 Mio
If Brazil exports Mch/April / May and June 2.3 month - (9,2) Mio
Internal usage Mch/April/May/June 1.8 month - (7,3) Mio
July 01st - 0,50 Mio
Clearly one will claim it is impossible to work with zero stocks but by July 01st most of Conillon would be harvested (15/16 Mio) a big portion of Zona da Mata, ES and some 25% of the rest of the regions ( some 13 Mio bags).
Wishing you a nice weekend
Terra Forte Trading Desk