Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Well noted. We have seen many "bullish" COT reports issued with a one day wonder rally on Monday only to fizzle out usually by day's end. Fact is, tradeable rallies in coffee historically originate only after origin has relieved some of the selling pressure and not straight away from the extreme COT readings. This is necessary and salutary and provide the chart basing patterns from which breakouts occur. Might not happen this round but it is a building block for the eventual upside move.
historical patterns suggest this report is not, per se, bearish. But, the put OI in May has surged (again) recently and it appears the roasters (again) are the major shorts. Check the OI in strikes 120, 11750,115. 11250 and 110. Substantial gamma scalping will be required from the put longs and as the gamma (rate of change of the delta) increases with each passing day it will exert more selling on rallies of lesser amplitudes. and the accompanying buying on dips. In short more of the same. but the put delta must be respected.
Any know yet of surprise ITM abandonments or OTM exercises tonight?