Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Producers from the Commitment of Traders Report have NOT gotten on the short side because of............too low a price, or
too small a crop being produced compared to expectations or maybe both of the previously stated reasons. Rabobank coffee estimate
mention the reduced number of cherries in south west Minas Gerais area, which agrees with weather for this year. My two cent says the
weather wasn't favourable for large cherries to be produced in eastern Brazil. I agree with Rabobank on a larger number of cherries (than Minas Gerais) produced
but look for smaller size for this year in eastern Brazil. (13 million robusta versus 15 million bags estimate by Rabobank) End result........total crop size near to Alf's estimate.
Cycles of drought or poor flowering affecting coffee crop size take many months before it becomes apparent. Freezes show up much more quickly.