Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
The first fifteen minutes of trading had fairly good volume as any selling that came in met resting bids. The market has been quiet since as it awaits NY to open. 1/2 cent either way the market is equally balanced as bids were hit at the opening. Below the low buying increases both in the front month and forward months. Yesterday it appeared that new selling from funds was filling commercial bids and more of the same is expected today. Discussion of large traders as long term participants must include swap dealers as institutional buyers, index funds and some managed money. With these groups stand the commercial buyers of forwards which are likely consumers. The reality is that new selling by specs has and is satisfying long term and permanent buyers. The disillusionment is that any short covering will not propel the market to any significant level due to long liquidation by both spec and option related commercials. Thus we have an unexciting market, for now Robusta is relatively slightly steadier with the arb at 39.00. Spreads there are generally steady MayJul there is at a 22 point discount as some rule changes impacting May are in place but the JulSep is premium 1 bid. In KC, the lower the market goes due to new spec selling the greater will the roll be on the upside. MayJul is -2.30/-2.25. USDBRL is 3.2614 +.0004 and the COP is 2846.00 +1.00. All major currencies are down against the $. Bond futures are steady. Metals are lower and seem to also be looking for direction. Oil is unchanged and equities are slightly higher. Sugar is lower, cocoa unchanged and cotton is higher.