Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
A couple of hundred lots were sold at the bell. Since then the market has been well supported. The fund selling however will resume at around 8:00 EST. Yesterday this selling was constant and heavy, hitting size stops. As has been typical, these trades take place in a narrow range as they are well absorbed by size resting bids, icebergs and forward bids. There have not been any gaps created or flash drops of significance giving testimony of the tremendous support that the market has. The support is also displayed in resting bids both in May and forward. 485 lots of Sep are wanted at 120.00 (K 115.60) and May19 at 128.00 for 247 lots (K 114.25). May equivalents depend on then current spread bid. Spreads have already reacted defensively as forward bids are trading. The May OI is still high at 138.4 k and possibly increasing. The OI should be interesting when released at 9:15. The arb is down to 37.25 indicating that RC is not as weak as KC but it is typical behavior for RC to lag. Spreads there remain steady. The Real lost some ground yesterday and the USDBRL is 3.3107 +.0008. The COP is 2802.60 -3.90. Other currencies are mixed equaling an unchanged DX. Bond futures are on the soft side and metals are lower. Oil is higher after yesterday’s weakness, as are equities. Sugar and cocoa are lower and cotton is higher after yesterday’s drop. Coffee continues to be a market laden with new spec selling, with no interest of buying except for commercials. If the California news had a negative impact on the market it seems to have been contained within a 3 cent range, but without significant investment interest entering the market, the downward pressure will not fade. Winter is around the corner and spec shorts are increasing their positions however.