Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading


Coffee Traders Discussion Forum

Coffee Traders' Forum

Market *PIC*

Over 600 lots were sold during the first five minutes of trading, hitting resting bids and establishing the morning’s range so far. Possibly the selling was due to the weak Real that registered yesterday afternoon but the reason for this weakness, as Romel has described it (Thank you, Romel), the possible arrest of Lula, should only have a temporary setback on the currency. Meantime RC continues to be stronger than KC with the arb at 36.80. Spreads there are very firm as the MayJul which was expected to go to at least -40 due to a delivery rule modfication is -18 bid. The JulSep which is not affected by the rule is now 6 premium bid. Our MayJul was just -2.00 bid and is now offered. The OI is still very high in May for this time of the notice month at 138k but let’s not forget the new spreads that we have seen being added on the COT these last few weeks in anticipation of spec short rolling. The market in general remains in a steady tone with bids piled up in May and scattered in forwards. Yesterday there was very good buying that remained consistent throughout the day but merely absorbing fund selling, thereby making little headwind. USDBRL is 3.3409, unchanged. The COP is 2791.8 +14.00 as Colombia’s Fedecafé has asked the government to buy dollars to boost coffee prices. Soybeans are down 47 as China has inposed a tariff there and the DX is down although currencies are mixed. Bond futures are elevated this morning. There has not been any mention in the news about the possibility of China dumping their US bonds. What am I missing? Crude is sharply lower as are equities. Metals are sharply higher but no enough. All softs are lower and cotton may be a big factor in trade wars as it is down 2.20. It would make sense that the US administration did not levy tariffs on coffee. Thoughts?