Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
No change in the OI traditionally means new vs old but these days it could just be liquidation in May against new positions in July. The range was just about a cent yesterday and activity was likely option related so what’s the 4,410 EFS about? Likely institutional that will be reflected on next week’s COT release but is it new buying or liquidation. I would say liquidation, reduction of longs because it was posted in May. On the other hand it could be short covering. We’ll see. Today the market was a fake out as some good buying met a wall of selling. Over 800 lots were bought in that spike but it’s not the systemic type of buying that we’re looking for. Roll and option exp. are now more of a presence. MayJul went to -2.20 bid to the current -2.05 bid and the spread has thinned out at these levels. The May OI of 59k maybe down by 15 today so far to around 45k. If the market lingers in this area a little longer (117.85) I would be tempted to go long. USDBRL is 3.4070 -.0054. $ has eased and metals are steady again, especially silver.