Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Reflections on Brazilian coffee
We will start the new harvest and latent the little coffee of stocks in Brazil, even with the decrease of exports.
We can say beforehand that Brazilian coffee stocks would end on June 30, this is not the case because coffee harvested in May and June is used for exports and domestic consumption.
Then the entire Brazilian coffee supply for the next 24 months will come from the harvests.
In 2018 we are having an excellent harvest, in my opinion the quantity of Arabian coffees is close to 40 million bags and coffee conilon next to 13 million bags, a total of 43 million bags , I know is the most conservative number there are others think up to 60 million bags.
Note that Brazilian exports between July 2017 and June 2018 are expected to be close to 30 million bags, approximately 10% less than in the previous 2016/17, and approximately 20% less than the 2014/15 and 2015/16 years .
So with the least availability of coffee presented in the 2017/18 crop that I am conservative for the 2018/19 crop, because the use of coffee in 2017/18 was with part of the 2016/17 crop stocks.
Anyway, what I want to call attention beforehand is for the 2019/20 crop, since less fertilizer use has already started and the weather is not helping, you can see that the rains were much below the average in April, we can say that we are in a drought, and we need to rain more than normal to be able to balance.
As long as the climate cooperates, in a normal biennial time we would have a difference of 20% in the production of Arabicas, then the harvest for 2019/20 will be close to 32 million bags.
However due to the current drought and less use of fertilizers, I start to think that this percentage of bianelidade may rise.
So I ask Flavio to show himself, because he is an expert in soil moisture and its consequences.