Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Thank you for your comments John. I agree with some of the points you make. I agree with buying dips and I have been recommending this in my posts. Of course if the dips are deep enough to reverse the systems to selling then I will reconsider. However, as I stated there was very good support at the lows on Friday, and, as I’ve also said the market in my view remains steady. Why do I think that the COT report is bearish?
I look at the tremendous selling that has taken place since the market has been above 120.00. Just looking from April 24, the last day of the previous COT, until this last Thursday the COT shows that funds bought 12,600 lots and the OI shows that an additional 7,475 lots were liquidated this last Wednesday and Thursday. This has all taken place in a close to close range of less than 4 cents, 120.45 to 124.35. If this is bullish I need to go back to trading school. Thousands of lots trade in ranges of 10 to 15 points. The day that I see that 5,000 lots trade in a 2 to 4 cent pop in seconds, not in days or weeks, then I will say that this market is ready to move.
I think that Phil is saying that the market has already given a signal that it will continue higher. I believe that he has given an initial target of 140.00. Excuse me if I’m misquoting. And, he asserts that any other input regarding the market is “noise.” I don’t criticize that investment strategy but it’s not for me. As a trader, I am more interested of how the market will behave, what signals it will give me, the noise, from current levels to 140.00, or wherever the market goes.
As far as the weather, what I read in reports is that moisture is lower than normal but that the impact on crops is: “Continued dry weather.....will favor ripening and early harvesting of the coffee crop.” How is this a weather crisis? But I do believe that because of global warming weather all over the world is more erratic.
I wish I could say that the market will go straight up. I am actually long. But John I am not convinced that we will see fireworks. I expect any buying to be met by intense selling for now. GT