Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
My bearish comments were centered on the grain complex COT.
Corn and wheat are, however, fundamentally bullish for the moment, particularly corn. However, if the weather improves in Australia, Russia, Ukraine, Canada and particularly the Black Sea, wheat will come under pressure and not make new highs. It is not too late for that to happen. Pretty simple. Same with Argentina drying out for wheat planting.
Love the long bean oil and short meal spread. Nice move right out of the gate tonight.
Beans are all about the trade deal with China, something I am not optimistic on at the moment. Trump should keep his mouth shut in public, something that isn’t possible. Rudy is another new member of the gang that can’t shoot straight or shut up. Both the Democrats and Republicans are a major embarrassment to the nation. Our national media is also disgusting. They are now treating a porn star like a state dignitary. One thing for sure, the average American knows they are scum.
COT on oats is screaming to be bought.
Important to be prepared for a big jump in corn and bean acreage next year in Latin America and China.
Bullish NY KC on all breaks. The bottom is in, but would buy BREAKS ONLY. Nestle just partnered up with Starbucks. Now they can sell more poor quality coffee with higher margins to consumers across the globe who have no idea what a good cup of coffee tastes like. Gap should be filled at $1.32 and then push to the $1.45 area, a 50% retracement of the break from $1.80. $2.40 area possible with a totally unpredictable weather event. Those who feel the funds now have room to sell another 30,000 contracts are correct, but they are also positioned to buy 90,000 if they reverse their position. That could happen this year. Going forward, micro management of the NY KC COT is unlikely to be profitable for traders. BUY BREAKS. Would not chase any commodities.
Bearish on cocoa. Top is in to me.
Sugar will be a big trade on the long side, but another BUY BREAKS ONLY DEAL. Requires patience as well. Not something I like. Much prefer instant gratification.
Watching nat gas closely.
Cotton probably headed up, but too risky for me.