Coffee Traders' Forum - A Discussion about Coffee Futures Trading
Coffee Traders Discussion Forum
Hola Jose !
As you can see Naguals chart shows a better seasonality for longs on the second half of the year.
The market does not in general with no reason just climb with any endurance.
The underlying problem is the climb in production efficency through the years.
So was left for the market to trend up - currencies that affect the price - weather events with drougt or very rarely frost.
There are some weather forecasts or datasimulations that predict 2018 as a higher probability frost year, lets remember its a very low probability ( maybe 1/20) but if it plays out
the market is positioned in the wrong side and has to cover shorts very fast forcing the price to spike.
In summary ; (Naguals and PhilGuys post summs it up well ) a neutral to bearish market with low probability spike higher caused by weather forecasts or weather events playing out.
I whould certanly not go short , maybe looking for a better long entry ahead.